cbo analysis of tax cuts and jobs act

%%EOF In percentage terms, the differences between actual and projected receipts were larger for individual and corporate income tax receipts than for total receipts. December 11, 2017 . 148 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<67CCD3C4905CC147AD586466D0E19301>]/Index[121 59]/Info 120 0 R/Length 118/Prev 152702/Root 122 0 R/Size 180/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream In analyzing its baseline projections of revenues since 1982, CBO found that the mean absolute error—that is, the average of all errors without regard to whether they are positive or negative—was 2.2 percent for forecasts for the current year, 5.0 percent for projections for the subsequent fiscal year, and 10.1 percent for projections for the sixth year of the projection period. ��?��/K�H UJ )�fc��%̀� In short, revenues in fiscal years 2018 and 2019 were a bit lower than the Congressional Budget Office anticipated in early 2018, but whether that result is related to the effects of the tax act is unknown. 0
%PDF-1.5 %�� %%EOF Although some preliminary information has become available from tax returns filed for the 2018 tax year—the first returns that reflect most of the changes made by the tax act—that information does not clearly indicate whether the tax act’s effects differed from those CBO estimated in April 2018. 179 0 obj <>stream The extent to which the relatively small errors in projected receipts for 2018 and 2019 and the downward revisions to projected receipts over the following decade were influenced by the effects of the 2017 tax act’s being larger or smaller than CBO projected or by other factors is not known.

CBO provides information about the effects of the December 2017 tax act (Public Law 115-97, initially titled the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) and how revenues to date have differed from the projections CBO made after that legislation was enacted.

The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of theTax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by Congress. Although P.L. Our model results indicate that the House Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would be pro-growth, boosting long-run GDP by 3.5 percent and increasing the domestic capital stock by 9.3 percent. 0 endstream endobj startxref Indeed, tax returns for 2018 for those who received extensions were filed only within the past two weeks. pZm�ǶLy�޲L��b�[%[�_�9�� "@ T��]: �40n*10>�Ғ@�"��i�J�� [$�K��X2�,�{0yZ��ل�. h�b```e``:"�>32 � P��cC��&�� We find the legislation would boost US economic output by 0.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2027, and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2037.

The larger economy would translate into 1.5 percent higher wages and result in an additional 339,000 full-time equivalent jobs. The House Tax Cuts and Jobs Act represents a dramatic overhaul of the U.S. tax code. CBO provides information about the effects of the December 2017 tax act (Public Law 115-97, initially titled the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) and how revenues to date have differed from the projections CBO made after that legislation was enacted. That estimate considered all changes to revenues and outlays, including the effects of macroeconomic feedback and changes in debt-service costs. CBO will continue to monitor data to assess the effects of the 2017 tax act and to update its projections of tax revenues under current law. The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the Senate on December 2, 2017. pZG�~��l�rTb��wQKl�\ Since April 2018, CBO has published four subsequent revisions to its revenue projections; together, those revisions reduced projected revenues over the 2018–2028 period by $700 billion (or 1.5 percent). Additional Information About the Effects of Public Law 115-97 on Revenues, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029, Privacy, Security, and Copyright Policies. December 20, 2017 . %PDF-1.5 %�� 182 0 obj <>stream At that time, CBO estimated that the tax act would increase the deficit by $1.9 trillion over the 2018–2028 period. @-��;��&��Ĳ�x��z�Z�#%��iF :��@��@�� e`�4��0 5C� The Tax Policy Center has released an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed by the US House of Representatives on November 16, 2017. In August 2019, CBO described the recent data that have become available and the insights they provide into the effects of the tax changes on revenues (see Box 1-1 in An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029). �(�' š BdG��O��@B(�� d100R�?Ӻ� �~� h�bbd``b`��+@� �UbU &C�l�� "l�k�`�� u� �Sa"΀t� q�y�� Benjamin R. Page, Joseph Rosenberg, James R. Nunns, Jeffrey Rohaly, Daniel Berger . AGREEMENT FOR THE TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT TPC Staff December 18, 2017 The Tax Policy Center has released distributional estimates of the conference agreement for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as filed on December 15, 2017. Benjamin R. Page, Joseph Rosenberg, James R. Nunns, Jeffrey Rohaly, Daniel Berger . MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT AS PASSED BY THE SENATE . Nevertheless, the agency continues to evaluate incoming data that provide evidence on the effects of the legislation. h�b```e``�"u�@(��e1�7�� 122 0 obj <> endobj endstream endobj startxref

endstream endobj 122 0 obj <. endstream endobj 123 0 obj <. 121 0 obj <> endobj In response to a request from Senator Mike Braun, CBO provides additional information about the effects of the 2017 tax act on federal revenues. Revenue projections are inherently uncertain, and actual outcomes would differ from CBO’s projections even if no changes were made to current law. Total receipts in 2018 were $8 billion (or 0.2 percent) lower than what CBO initially projected, and receipts in 2019 were $28 billion (or 0.8 percent) lower.
149 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<4153883BA9B4AE419B6B05C01BD95EFC><026D645BC291BA4DA4D22577E3DF4B00>]/Index[122 61]/Info 121 0 R/Length 117/Prev 154512/Root 123 0 R/Size 183/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream 115-97 (originally titled the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) was enacted in December 2017, CBO first reported estimates of its full effects in April 2018 (see Appendix B in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028. Those revisions to projected receipts reflect various factors, including revised economic projections, changes in tax modeling methodologies, and the incorporation of recent data on tax collections. The revisions do not reflect an explicit reassessment of the effects of the 2017 tax act, but they may be influenced by how those effects have unfolded over the past two years. B�w�iI �X��ϴO��/@(��@�A.�w��X}�gdu��b��"��ө�\l��|]��kB��>�N�#%�� iF :��lVB��@��A��)H�N � �[D As a result, we estimate that the plan would increase long-run GDP by 1.7 percent. Revisions of that size are not unusual. We find the legislation would boost US gross domestic product (GDP) 0.8 percent in 2018 and would have little effect on GDP in 2027 or 2037.

We find the bill would reduce taxes on average for all … Our analysis finds that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would reduce marginal tax rates on labor and investment. h�bbd``b`�+@� �i�q��S6�kbe gqD\)��X@�Y�"��W�P��@Bs��$�W �P�y� u�@B�#H��qP��V>0 �� These estimates imply widely varying labor incidence of the corporate tax cuts in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, ranging from near zero for the Tax Policy Center to multiples of the conventional revenue estimate for the Council of Economic Advisers.

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